Solution

In my organization, like in any other, disruptions and supply cuts are expected, which happen. There is a need for a tool to be in place that can be used to predict these disruptions or supply cuts so that appropriate measures are taken and contingency plans put in place to ensure continuity of the supply of resources in the event of disruption.

Below table is reproduction of the response developed in earlier submission. Specific examples are provided per the instructor’s comments here. This was possible by interviewing with the relevant personnel in my own organization;

Forecasting model to predict potential supply disruptions:

The role of forecasting models is to identify any potential disruptions in the supply in order to be equipped beforehand so the continuity of resource is maintained. There are various forecasting techniques various organizations use based on their business model and demand cycle. I describe here one technique which is used in my organization for forecasting the resource supply disruptions.

Time Series:

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